The first is Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity Is Near
On a shorter timeline, Trey Perry and the Pew American Internet & Life project have published visions of the Internet in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Trey predicts the development of personal Internet technologies over the next ten years, while the Pew report ("The Future of the Internet II") has gathered the opinions of various experts regarding the big picture of the Internet's influence upon society at the start of the '20s. I will quote a few key findings of the Pew report here:
On the growth of the network:
A majority of respondents agreed with a scenario which posited that a global, low-cost network will be thriving in 2020 and will be available to most people around the world at low cost. And they agreed that a tech-abetted “flattening” of the world will open up opportunities for success for many people who will compete globally.On autonomous technology:
Still, a vocal and sizeable minority of respondents say they are unsure that the policy climate will be favorable for such internet expansion. The center of the resistance, they say, will be in the businesses anxious to preserve their current advantages and in policy circles where control over information and communication is a central value.
Most respondents said they think humans will remain in charge of technology between now and 2020. However some fear that technological progress will eventually create machines and processes that move beyond human control. Others said they fear that the leaders who exercise control of the technology might use this power inappropriately.On the new Luddites:
Future Most respondents agreed that there will people who will remain unconnected to the network because of their economic circumstances and others who think a class of technology refuseniks will emerge by 2020. They will form their own cultural group that lives apart from “modern” society and some will commit acts of violence in protest to technology.On virtual reality:
Many respondents agreed with the notion that those who are connected online will devote more time to sophisticated, compelling, networked, synthetic worlds by 2020. While this will foster productivity and connectedness and be an advantage to many, it will lead to addiction problems for some.There are many, many additional issues that are discussed in the Pew report, including the future of privacy, nation-states, legal issues, the Semantic Web, standards, interoperability, language and translation, computing costs, coding, and economic factors. I encourage everyone interested in the next 10-15 years of Internet development to read the Pew center's full report.
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