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Sunday, February 22, 2009

What technologies will play a major role in electronic publishing over the next five years?

Question #5 from an interview I gave to an Emerson graduate student:

Question: What upcoming or anticipated technologies do you predict will play a major role in electronic publishing over the next five years?

My answer:
Integration between Facebook and major news sites that let members track what their friends are reading and recommending.

The continued shakeout of news and trade pubs. In many markets, it's going to be a "last man standing" situation, or even complete failure of established brands, which will lead to new opportunities for smaller ad-supported online publishers and niche subscription services.

Low-cost mobile data networks. The ridiculous data fees charged by carriers can't hold up, and when they come down, the adoption of smart mobile devices will soar, along with content optimized for mobile devices.

Limited "AI" technologies – perhaps developed in concert with crowd-sourcing apps -- that allow people to effectively filter the information overload.
I actually meant to say "narrow AI," not "limited AI". I first heard the term when I read Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near, and interviewed him for Computerworld. He was referring to limited applications of artificial intelligence -- a program that uses AI technologies to do a very specific task. This is opposed to "strong AI," which Kurzweil described to me as "human-level AI, artificial intelligence that could pass the Turing Test."

Some of my other answers from the interview:

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